Between 1939, the publishing date of First Edition of the book "Alcoholics Anonymous" and 1955, the members of AA experienced a recovery rate of 75% or more among newcomers to the fellowship. According to reliable reports, alcoholics introduced to the AA 12-Step Program of recovery by AAs whose sponsors were Dr. Bob of Akron or Clarence S. of Cleveland often recovered 95% of the time or more, a remarkable rate of success. The 75% success rate carried through 1955, when the collection of easy-to-read essays published in "Twelve Steps and Twelve Traditions" became a poplar alternative to reading the more challenging basic text published 16 years earlier.

By 1965, AA reported that half (50%)of the newcomers to the program recovered, a significant decrease. Around that time, AA groups began adopting the "Discussion Meeting" format. Fifteen years later, AA reported the rate of successful recoveries among newcomers was down to one out of three (33.3%). The latest estimate, made in 1995, indicates that less than 5% of the newcomers to AA recovered and became long-term members of the AA Fellowship.

If these facts are correct, what happened to turn a once-miraculous recovery program into a mediocre performer?

Alcoholism has been around for thousands of years; it has not changed since 1938. What has changed? The AA 12-Step Program of recovery clearly presented in the "Big Book" has not changed. Did the old-timers sponsor newcomers differently? Are the newcomers different?

The purpose of this Forum is to exchange information, ideas, views, and opinions in an effort to (1) define the problem, (2) identify possible solutions, and (3) debate the merits of alternative solutions to find the best, most effective solution to the decreased rate of recovery.

What are your thoughts?